Some Thoughts on the Presidential Election

I thought that I would do some investigation into the recent US presidential election. I have long maintained that increasing the level of higher education among our people may be the best way to prevent demagogues like President-elect Trump from managing to get themselves elected. However, there has been a lot of discussion about the economy being one of the root causes of Trump’s victory. I figured it would be useful to examine both theories.

To examine the impact of the economy on the election, I figured looking at the gross domestic product per capita of the various states would be a good way to start. This, in essence, gives a bit of a measure of the wealth of the inhabitants of the various states. I took the top ten and bottom ten states in this category and compared them against election results.

It turns out that Harris took the top 6 of the states with top GDP(per capita) and 7 of the top 10.

top 10 states GDP (per capital)
top 10 states GDP (per capital)

Looking at states with bottom GDP(per capita), Trump took 9 of those states, 8 of them by very large margins.

bottom 10 states - GDP (per capita)
bottom 10 states – GDP (per capita)

So it appears that GDP(per capita) had a significant impact on the outcome of the election, but I figured I would look into the impact of education, as well.

Here, the result is far more dramatic, with Harris taking all 10 of the top 10 states with the highest percentage of inhabitants with bachelor’s degrees or higher.

top 10 states - education
top 10 states – education

The bottom 10 version of this list is also dramatic, with Trump winning 9 of the 10 states with the least educated population. The sole Harris victory in these states goes to New Mexico, which has the 41st least educated population, just making this list.

bottom 10 states - education
bottom 10 states – education

Another thing to consider is that of the 10 highest GDP(per capita) states, 4 also appear on the top 10 educated list. Of the states with the lowest GDP(per capita) states, 7 of them also appear on the bottom 10 educated list. None of the highest GDP(per capita) states appear on the bottom educated list and none of the lowest GDP(per capita) states appear on the top educated list.

Thus, it appears that education has a relationship to GDP(per capita). I would say that it’s not an absolute thing that increasing education increases GDP(per capita). It probably increases the odds of improving a state’s GDP(per capita). Also, high GDP regions may be better positioned to educate their young and attract highly educated people to migrate from other regions, thus increasing the education ranking.

Back to the election, while states with better GDP seem to have favored Harris, it’s not as strong a relationship as a college-level education is. I’ve said to my friends in the past that the best way to reduce the chances of a demagogue like Trump from taking power is to increase the level of education of the population, particularly in currently neglected subjects like civics.

Perhaps Democratic party leaders like Biden already understand this, which may be one reason they are pushing for free, universal higher education.

However, upon reflection, this will only help to some extent, as I believe in the USA, most young people who are intellectually and emotionally equipped for a higher education are already getting this education. Our best bet going forward is to increase emphasis on civics in high schools, which is as close to universal as we will ever get in terms of education.

Data Sources
1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_GDP
2) https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/most-educated-states
3) https://www.bostonglobe.com/nation/politics/elections/2024-president-results/

The Threat to American Republican Government and What Ancient Greek Philosophers Thought about Democracy

The threats that Donald Trump has made against the modern American Republican Government have made me wonder how significant those risks are and if there might be alternative forms of government that would be more effective. Among other things, I have realized that the Constitution of the United States is 235 years old, and with all the changes in the world since 1789 the possibility that it could be outdated. This made me wonder about what the great philosophers of the past have said about society and government. Are modern philosophers discussing the effects of technology on civilization and have they considered any alternatives that might incorporate technological advancements? This essay is the first of what I hope will be several essays discussing what I am finding out about past and present thoughts on government.

First, I will start with the first documented Western thoughts on the topic, the thoughts of the ancient Greek Philosophers. Certain city-states in ancient Greece are known for their adoption of Democratic principles and ancient Greek philosophers are known for their early contributions to science and philosophy. Most of what we know of Greek philosophers before Socrates (pre-Socratic or early Greek philosophy) is largely associated with the nature of the physical world (physics, math and the nature of being). These sorts of things are not relevant to government, so I will move along to Socratic philosophy which includes among other things, discussion of society and government.

Socrates did not leave any writings, but his student, Plato did. In Plato’s writings, Socrates is often an important character and it is hard to differentiate Plato’s ideas from Socrates. As Plato was Socarate’s student, it is likely they shared many ideas. Plato’s book, “The Republic” describes what he thought might constitute an ideal state. A philosopher king leads this state. The philosopher king is highly educated, experienced in administration and only seeks the truth. The philosopher king does not want to rule but does so only out of a sense of duty. This person is not part of the mercantile class, so it not motivated to profit from his position of authority.

Socrates was so critical of the Democratic government of Athens that he was eventually executed for corrupting the minds of the youth of Athens and impiety (worshipping false gods). So my research has revealed that the most famous ancient Greek democracy, that of Athens, was heavily criticized by the greatest thinkers of the day, who proposed an alternative government, led by highly educated philosopher kings.

Next blog post, I’ll explore some of the history of Athens, which may reveal why Socrates and Plato were so critical of their government.

Why I Think the Demagogue Will Win

Back in 2016, I never thought a person of Donald Trump’s moral character could possibly win the presidency. I could not have been more wrong and disappointed in the results of that election. This time around, I’m taking a more objective approach to what I think will happen. Like it or not, this go around depends upon a few contentious issues.

One divisive issue that separates the candidates is gun control. Harris has made it clear that she wants to tighten gun control laws. A couple of statistics reveal how important this issue is. A Gallop poll indicates that about 44% of Americans live in households with guns. Another Gallop poll indicates that 43% of Americans think that gun control laws should stay the same (31%) or be relaxed (12%).

Let’s say that 75% of that roughly 40% of Americans are more concerned with their ability to own guns than the moral character of our next president. That gives Trump 30% of the electorate with just this one issue. To win the popular vote Trump will need another 2 out of 7 voters. I haven’t investigated other significant issues like immigration, the sagging economy, and abortion. There is likely to be large overlap in these demographics, but I think the gun control issue alone gives Trumps such a leg up, that any one of these other issues may put him over the top. This entirely ignores the group of people that vote along party lines regardless of the candidate’s platform.

Like the last couple of elections, a few swing states will decide the contest. A factor in Trump’s favor is that several important swing states like Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida all have fairly lenient gun control laws.

So based on this reasoning I think a strong case can be made that Trump will most likely win, despite his well-known character issues.

I am extremely concerned about the lack of urgency in dealing with climate change in our country and the world. To get a better grip on the general theory of government, I been reading quite a bit about great philosophers of the past and their views on the topic. Next post I will summarize some of what I have learned and what I think about some of their ideas.

Amazing 30 Year Old Aquarium Filter Repairs

One of the most amazing electrical-mechanical devices that I have ever owned is my Eheim 2213 canister filter. This is a water filter that I have used to help maintain water quality in my 55 gallon freshwater aquarium. This filter has been running continuously since I installed this aquarium probably around 1994 or 1995, close to 30 years ago. Every few months I cleaned out the media, but otherwise, it just runs and runs. About 10 years ago, I replaced the hoses that had gotten hard, but other than periodic cleaning, it has received no additional maintenance. A few years ago the pump started getting a bit noisy, but it kept running until a few days ago when it stopped. Inspection revealed that the impeller shaft and impeller were just plain worn out. A quick search on the internet revealed that replacement parts were still available with next-day delivery, so I ordered new parts.

The parts arrived the next day and I replaced the impeller and shaft. Turning it back on, it picked up again just where it left off. I am enormously impressed with this filter and the ability to get repair parts with one-day delivery.

I also have used an Optima A-807 air pump for a similar amount of time that has had its diaphragm replaced once. That has also been a pretty impressive run.

The only thing I can think of that that comes close in reliability is an Amana refrigerator that I replaced after 22 years of service. That refrigerator was replaced because of a remodeling of my kitchen that made that refrigerator unsuitable for the new layout, not because it failed.

I have a few other devices that are older and still work, but none of those are continuously operated and all of them have had multiple faults over the years.

Worst Bicycle Brake Design That I Have Ever Seen

The surestop brake system is a crazy design for a bicycle brake. What it does is use the friction of a a brake pad rubbing on the rim of the rear wheel to pull a cable to activate a cable to pull a V-brake cable in order to activate the front brake. There is only one brake lever, which activates the rear brake, which then automatically activates the front brake. According to the manufacturer there are three benefits to this system:

  • Single lever operation operates both front and rear brakes.
  • The way force is transferred from rear wheel to front wheel will prevent the rider from locking up the front wheel. The rider will not flip over the front handlebars by over application of the front brake. This was apparently the motivation of the original inventor of this system.
  • Compared to a single rear coaster brake, both wheels are used for braking.

So why is this concept is a bad idea when compared to having separate activated front and rear V-brakes. I will ignore the comparison to a single coaster brake, since the cost of this system is essentially the same as conventional V-brakes. A dual braking system should be superior to any single coaster brake system.

  • First and foremost – there is no redundancy in a SureStop braking system. If your rear brake fails or falls out of adjustment, you will have absolutely no brakes at all. Unlike the SureStop system, conventional front and rear V-brakes are completely independent, so if one or the other fails, you still have the other brake system to rely upon.
  • Having several extra elements between the brake level and the front brake pads, the SureStop system requires the system to be extremely finely adjusted in order for it to work properly. Normal V-brakes have a much greater range of adjustability that will still result in adequate braking. Thus, the SureStop system will degrade faster with wear and tear and be more difficult to maintian than a conventional system.
  • Having the mechanical system automatically apply the front brake prevents a competent rider from modulating front and rear brakes independently if traction between front and rear wheels differs. Automatic front brake operation cannot possibly outperform a rider that has learned proper control of independent front and rear brakes.

The SureStop system is designed to help prevent a rider from over application of the front brake and from flipping over the handlebar. Regardless, in my mind, a conventional V-brake system provides a vastly more reliable and safer solution to the problem of braking a bicycle. The most important factor being the redundancy built into a conventional system. Though I’m sure that some people have used carefully maintained SureStop brakes and haven’t had any extraordinary problems with them, I would avoid this braking solution.

Read my Building a Railroad Essay

I have just put up a new essay titled Building a Railroad onto my Stories Page. The download is free.

This is an extensively illustrated essay that contains part of a diary kept by John Morgan, assistant engineer for the U.S. Military Railroad at City point during the siege of Petersburg.  The period covered is February 5th to March 6th, 1865, when the City Point and Army Line Railroad was expanded to support the new positions of the Army of the Potomac after the Battles of Hatcher’s Run.  I have added much commentary about the U.S. Military Railroad and the events that occurred at this time.

Moving Humphreys Station on the City Point and Army Line Railroad

One of the things that I looked at when I visited the National Archives a few years ago, was a journal that had daily entries. These entries loosely described what the engineering and construction corps of the USMRR was up to on each day of the Petersburg champaign. I’m not exactly sure who was responsible for making the entries, but there is handwriting from several different people in the journal. Typical entries reported on the weather, what the various construction gangs were up to, significant military and political events and so on. Like most diaries, the content isn’t that exciting, but there are a few gems in there. Here is one of more interesting entries that I encountered.

Moving Humphrey's Station
Moving Humphrey’s Station

Here is it transcribed.

Thursday March 2d, 1865

Mr McAlpine, Prin. Asst. Engr went to the front this morning to select a location for the terminus of the Hatcher Run Branch as Genl Humphreys, the Commander of the 2nd A.C. has emphatically declared the R.R. a nuisance and must have the station removed out of sight of his quarters, as the noise from the cars and locomotives disturb his nerves.

We ought to have Generals who have better “nerves” and who could sleep wherever circumstances placed them.

As it is the road has to be extended beyond Genl. Humphreys Headquarters into the Campground of the 5th A. C. who have no nerve & of course can put up with the noise & disturbance caused by running the road.

There was not much work done today, as the rain has poured down in torrents all day.  The James River is quite high & prospects for a still greater freshet.

Nothing New

There are several remarkable things about this entry.

First of all is the comment about the need for “Generals who have better nerves.” I worked for almost 40 years in various tech jobs for companies big and small. Though it is pretty routine for an individual to complain about a managers decisions, it is extremely rare for anyone to put it down in writing. Usually, that becomes what is known in industry as a career limiting move or a “CLM.” I can only guess that the entry was written either by a civilian employee or someone else that didn’t intend on making the army a career.

The second thing that struck me is how a general might demand that the railroad move it’s terminus so all the activity didn’t disturb his nerves. This caused me to spend some time investigating general A.A. Humphreys to see just what kind of person he was.

What I found was a most interesting man. A graduate of the West Point class of 1831, A.A. Humphreys became a highly respected civil engineer. Before the Civil War, he led the survey that was to plot the route for the first transcontinental railroad. He also started work on a detailed analysis of the Mississippi River that was intended to help the engineers improve navigation. That analysis was published shortly after the war.

Though highly respected, he was apparently very set in his ways and it appears he had few close friends. That he navigated the changes in command of the Army of Potomac with little controversy, is probably a reflection of his independent nature. It appears he had a reasonably good relationship with General Meade, who asked him to be chief of staff of the Army of Potomac after Meade took command. At first Humphreys refused the offer, preferring to remain a division commander. Later on, he was asked again to take the position and accepted. Also, General Abbot, who commanded the siege Artillery at Petersburg worked with Humphreys on the Mississippi River project before and after the war. I wonder if it was Humphreys who recommended that Abbot be put in charge of the siege artillery in front of Petersburg. It is somewhat interesting that with all his knowledge of the Mississippi River, that Humphreys was never sent to assist in the fight on that front.

That an engineer of his esteem would make the USMRR move it’s station because of how it disturbed his nerves is very surprising to me and I believe very reflective of his difficult nature. However, there is the possibility that the engineer Humphreys just didn’t like the location chosen for the station for other reasons than “nerves” and had the USMRR move it to what he considered a better spot.

The American Philosophical Society, which was and is one of America’s leading intellectual societies had a lecture by Hampton L. Carson about Humphreys shortly after his death. This paper described Humphreys as follows.

The life of Andrew Atkinson Humphreys was one of reflection and action, of incident and character. A man of science, a brilliant soldier, an accomplished scholar, a polished gentleman, the lineal descendant of distinguished men, and the inheritor of their talents and virtues, he displayed in every walk of life the highest qualities, and combined the most opposite characteristics. Born to command, he easily attained the front rank in every species of labor which he undertook, yet his modesty was as great, as it was rare. His intercourse with men was graced by a charm of manner, a simplicity of diction, purity of sentiment, a gentle resistlessness of will that armed him with a power which few could oppose with success ; or if, misled by these, they had dared to stir the half-hidden fire of his nature, they would have found him as terrible as Saul. … …he was in public and in private, a man to be feared, to be trusted, to be admired, to be loved ; a man with whom no one could trifle, and whom no one would care to offend.

This picture of him, seems to portray a pretty intense person.

A. A. Humphreys
A. A. Humphreys

I think this difficult nature also explains how long it took him to attain corps command in the Civil War. However difficult he was, he seemed to know how to defer to superiors, as it seems he was never fired from a job. What do you think about A.A. Humphreys?