Some Thoughts on the Presidential Election

I thought that I would do some investigation into the recent US presidential election. I have long maintained that increasing the level of higher education among our people may be the best way to prevent demagogues like President-elect Trump from managing to get themselves elected. However, there has been a lot of discussion about the economy being one of the root causes of Trump’s victory. I figured it would be useful to examine both theories.

To examine the impact of the economy on the election, I figured looking at the gross domestic product per capita of the various states would be a good way to start. This, in essence, gives a bit of a measure of the wealth of the inhabitants of the various states. I took the top ten and bottom ten states in this category and compared them against election results.

It turns out that Harris took the top 6 of the states with top GDP(per capita) and 7 of the top 10.

top 10 states GDP (per capital)
top 10 states GDP (per capital)

Looking at states with bottom GDP(per capita), Trump took 9 of those states, 8 of them by very large margins.

bottom 10 states - GDP (per capita)
bottom 10 states – GDP (per capita)

So it appears that GDP(per capita) had a significant impact on the outcome of the election, but I figured I would look into the impact of education, as well.

Here, the result is far more dramatic, with Harris taking all 10 of the top 10 states with the highest percentage of inhabitants with bachelor’s degrees or higher.

top 10 states - education
top 10 states – education

The bottom 10 version of this list is also dramatic, with Trump winning 9 of the 10 states with the least educated population. The sole Harris victory in these states goes to New Mexico, which has the 41st least educated population, just making this list.

bottom 10 states - education
bottom 10 states – education

Another thing to consider is that of the 10 highest GDP(per capita) states, 4 also appear on the top 10 educated list. Of the states with the lowest GDP(per capita) states, 7 of them also appear on the bottom 10 educated list. None of the highest GDP(per capita) states appear on the bottom educated list and none of the lowest GDP(per capita) states appear on the top educated list.

Thus, it appears that education has a relationship to GDP(per capita). I would say that it’s not an absolute thing that increasing education increases GDP(per capita). It probably increases the odds of improving a state’s GDP(per capita). Also, high GDP regions may be better positioned to educate their young and attract highly educated people to migrate from other regions, thus increasing the education ranking.

Back to the election, while states with better GDP seem to have favored Harris, it’s not as strong a relationship as a college-level education is. I’ve said to my friends in the past that the best way to reduce the chances of a demagogue like Trump from taking power is to increase the level of education of the population, particularly in currently neglected subjects like civics.

Perhaps Democratic party leaders like Biden already understand this, which may be one reason they are pushing for free, universal higher education.

However, upon reflection, this will only help to some extent, as I believe in the USA, most young people who are intellectually and emotionally equipped for a higher education are already getting this education. Our best bet going forward is to increase emphasis on civics in high schools, which is as close to universal as we will ever get in terms of education.

Data Sources
1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_GDP
2) https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/most-educated-states
3) https://www.bostonglobe.com/nation/politics/elections/2024-president-results/

The Threat to American Republican Government and What Ancient Greek Philosophers Thought about Democracy

The threats that Donald Trump has made against the modern American Republican Government have made me wonder how significant those risks are and if there might be alternative forms of government that would be more effective. Among other things, I have realized that the Constitution of the United States is 235 years old, and with all the changes in the world since 1789 the possibility that it could be outdated. This made me wonder about what the great philosophers of the past have said about society and government. Are modern philosophers discussing the effects of technology on civilization and have they considered any alternatives that might incorporate technological advancements? This essay is the first of what I hope will be several essays discussing what I am finding out about past and present thoughts on government.

First, I will start with the first documented Western thoughts on the topic, the thoughts of the ancient Greek Philosophers. Certain city-states in ancient Greece are known for their adoption of Democratic principles and ancient Greek philosophers are known for their early contributions to science and philosophy. Most of what we know of Greek philosophers before Socrates (pre-Socratic or early Greek philosophy) is largely associated with the nature of the physical world (physics, math and the nature of being). These sorts of things are not relevant to government, so I will move along to Socratic philosophy which includes among other things, discussion of society and government.

Socrates did not leave any writings, but his student, Plato did. In Plato’s writings, Socrates is often an important character and it is hard to differentiate Plato’s ideas from Socrates. As Plato was Socarate’s student, it is likely they shared many ideas. Plato’s book, “The Republic” describes what he thought might constitute an ideal state. A philosopher king leads this state. The philosopher king is highly educated, experienced in administration and only seeks the truth. The philosopher king does not want to rule but does so only out of a sense of duty. This person is not part of the mercantile class, so it not motivated to profit from his position of authority.

Socrates was so critical of the Democratic government of Athens that he was eventually executed for corrupting the minds of the youth of Athens and impiety (worshipping false gods). So my research has revealed that the most famous ancient Greek democracy, that of Athens, was heavily criticized by the greatest thinkers of the day, who proposed an alternative government, led by highly educated philosopher kings.

Next blog post, I’ll explore some of the history of Athens, which may reveal why Socrates and Plato were so critical of their government.

Why I Think the Demagogue Will Win

Back in 2016, I never thought a person of Donald Trump’s moral character could possibly win the presidency. I could not have been more wrong and disappointed in the results of that election. This time around, I’m taking a more objective approach to what I think will happen. Like it or not, this go around depends upon a few contentious issues.

One divisive issue that separates the candidates is gun control. Harris has made it clear that she wants to tighten gun control laws. A couple of statistics reveal how important this issue is. A Gallop poll indicates that about 44% of Americans live in households with guns. Another Gallop poll indicates that 43% of Americans think that gun control laws should stay the same (31%) or be relaxed (12%).

Let’s say that 75% of that roughly 40% of Americans are more concerned with their ability to own guns than the moral character of our next president. That gives Trump 30% of the electorate with just this one issue. To win the popular vote Trump will need another 2 out of 7 voters. I haven’t investigated other significant issues like immigration, the sagging economy, and abortion. There is likely to be large overlap in these demographics, but I think the gun control issue alone gives Trumps such a leg up, that any one of these other issues may put him over the top. This entirely ignores the group of people that vote along party lines regardless of the candidate’s platform.

Like the last couple of elections, a few swing states will decide the contest. A factor in Trump’s favor is that several important swing states like Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida all have fairly lenient gun control laws.

So based on this reasoning I think a strong case can be made that Trump will most likely win, despite his well-known character issues.

I am extremely concerned about the lack of urgency in dealing with climate change in our country and the world. To get a better grip on the general theory of government, I been reading quite a bit about great philosophers of the past and their views on the topic. Next post I will summarize some of what I have learned and what I think about some of their ideas.