Back in 2016, I never thought a person of Donald Trump’s moral character could possibly win the presidency. I could not have been more wrong and disappointed in the results of that election. This time around, I’m taking a more objective approach to what I think will happen. Like it or not, this go around depends upon a few contentious issues.
One divisive issue that separates the candidates is gun control. Harris has made it clear that she wants to tighten gun control laws. A couple of statistics reveal how important this issue is. A Gallop poll indicates that about 44% of Americans live in households with guns. Another Gallop poll indicates that 43% of Americans think that gun control laws should stay the same (31%) or be relaxed (12%).
Let’s say that 75% of that roughly 40% of Americans are more concerned with their ability to own guns than the moral character of our next president. That gives Trump 30% of the electorate with just this one issue. To win the popular vote Trump will need another 2 out of 7 voters. I haven’t investigated other significant issues like immigration, the sagging economy, and abortion. There is likely to be large overlap in these demographics, but I think the gun control issue alone gives Trumps such a leg up, that any one of these other issues may put him over the top. This entirely ignores the group of people that vote along party lines regardless of the candidate’s platform.
Like the last couple of elections, a few swing states will decide the contest. A factor in Trump’s favor is that several important swing states like Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida all have fairly lenient gun control laws.
So based on this reasoning I think a strong case can be made that Trump will most likely win, despite his well-known character issues.
I am extremely concerned about the lack of urgency in dealing with climate change in our country and the world. To get a better grip on the general theory of government, I been reading quite a bit about great philosophers of the past and their views on the topic. Next post I will summarize some of what I have learned and what I think about some of their ideas.
Couple of questions/comments:
What makes you think the economy is sagging? Can you support your assertion with quantitative data?
Before bringing up the boogeyman of immigration, I urge you to review the actual data and not to fall for disinformation. For example, here’s a place to start: https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/republican-campaign-ads-immigration-border-security/
Also, you completely ignore Cheeto Jesus’ defeat in 2020. If you apply your same reasoning, he should have won that contest.
One consideration that might give you hope: while a lot of American gun culture is downright fascistic, there’s certainly a portion of that 44% that would never vote for Trump, or would vote against him. (This is also ignoring that Trump’s admitted his actual stance on gun control – “take the guns first, go through due process second”. And, some single-issue voters who vote Republican because of guns have threatened to not vote as a result.)
Additionally, on abortion, a lot of traditionally Republican women quietly flipped in 2022 when it quickly became apparent that their abortions and their daughters’ would be banned, not just their enemies’ abortions. And, when it’s allowed to make it to the ballot, abortion protections are supported by the voters.